The amplification machine: Who spread a fake rare earths conspiracy across X and Facebook? Who was behind it?

This is the third and final part of a three-part investigation. In Part One, we traced how a fabricated “exclusive investigation” alleging a secret India-Kachin Independence Army rare earths conspiracy first appeared on Tech Bullion on November 18, 2025, and spread within eight days to four more pay-to-publish websites run by Pakistan- and Nepal-based SEO networks. In Part Two, we examined the unsubstantiated claims in the story and how the story jumped in December to regional newsrooms in Myanmar and northeast India, including CNI Myanmar and Eleven Media Group, with none of them contacting the Indian Embassy or the KIA for comment. By that point the story had appeared on nine outlets in total. Not one provided evidence when asked. Three deleted it without explanation. __________________________________________________________________________________________________

Coordinated Inauthentic Distribution on X

Beginning two weeks after the story’s initial publication, it was shared in four coordinated waves on X. These posts almost entirely follow the same pattern: Screenshots of one or more versions of the article, accompanied by summaries of the allegations and common hashtags.

This investigation identified 78 unique accounts that shared versions of the article. A review of the “about” tab (a feature which X introduced in November of 2025) of these accounts showed that the majority of them are based in Pakistan. A further 20 accounts that shared the article have since been suspended. No direct links to the Pakistani government were identified, but some of the accounts shared other content which showed similarities to Pakistani government PR messaging.

This investigation also found that 19 of the total 78 accounts that shared the article are geo-blocked in India, meaning that users in India cannot view their content. In 2025, following the outbreak of hostilities between India and Pakistan, X geo-blocked thousands of accounts in response to orders from the Indian government.

In an attempt to understand whether any of the accounts that shared the KIA-India conspiracy article had been geo-blocked in relation to these orders, an information request was submitted to India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology. In a written response, the ministry stated that because the inquiry touched on matters related to the sovereignty, integrity, security and strategic interests of India, the information sought was exempt from disclosure requirements under the Right to Information Act.

This investigation did not conduct an exhaustive search of all X accounts which posted versions of the article, but merely sought to analyze a representative sample.

The first wave of distribution on X occurred on December 2, 2025, when at least 59 X accounts originating in Pakistan shared versions of the article along with the hashtag #StopIndiaHegemony.

On December 4, at least six X accounts shared the article, with the hashtag #DefendMyanmarSovereignty. At least five of these accounts originated in Pakistan.

On December 9, at least nine X accounts shared the article, also with the hashtag #DefendMyanmarSovereignty. At least eight of these accounts originated in Pakistan.

On December 14 and 15, at least six X accounts made posts which reference an alleged rare earths conspiracy between India and the KIA, with the hashtag #MyanmarFactCheck. These posts do not include links to any articles or screenshots. At the time of analysis, the “about” section of these accounts indicated that three of these accounts originated in Singapore, two in France, and one did not list a location. All of these accounts also post content favorable toward the Myanmar military junta.

On Facebook

Research conducted with assistance from Graphika identified 24 Facebook accounts originating in Pakistan which shared versions of the article on December 10, 2025, along with the hashtag #StopRareEarthExploitation. This investigation did not conduct an exhaustive search of all Facebook accounts which posted versions of the article, but merely sought to analyze a representative sample. As with the posts on X, no direct links to the Pakistani government were identified, but some of the accounts shared other content which showed similarities to Pakistani government PR messaging.

This investigation was unable to identify the source of this influence campaign, but four primary, and possibly intersecting, possibilities emerged. They are presented here not as conclusive evidence or allegations, but as areas for further research.

Possibility 1: Pakistan, and/or pro-Pakistan Networks

Information wars between India and Pakistan go back decades, and intensified during armed hostilities in 2025. Research by the Center for the Study of Organized Hate, an independent nonprofit, found that X was the primary platform on which inauthentic material was spread at the time. The hashtag #StopIndiaHegemony was used in at least 64 posts which shared the KIA-India conspiracy story on X. While this in itself does not confirm whether the story originated from pro-Pakistan networks, it indicates a convergence of the story and anti-India propaganda interests. To date, there are few if any documented cases of the coordinated distribution of inauthentic news pertaining to Myanmar by Pakistan or pro-Pakistan networks. Angshuman Choudhury of the National University of Singapore noted that the KIA-India conspiracy story could represent “the early signs of a growing anti-India disinfo ecosystem in Pakistan that is venturing into new spaces.”

Possibility 2: The Myanmar Military Junta, and/or Pro-junta Networks

Another possibility is that the KIA-India conspiracy story originated elsewhere, and the Pakistan-origin X accounts offered a platform for distribution with converging interests. This possibility is supported by the content and framing of the articles and posts. They accuse the KIA and India of plotting to undermine Myanmar’s “sovereignty” in violation of international law, and highlight threats to regional stability. At least fifteen of the posts on X use the hashtag #DefendMyanmarSovereignty. While these details are insufficient to identify an author or motive, the Myanmar military and its supporters have a documented history of manipulating information to instigate conflict and consolidate power; the military even has a directorate of public relations and psychological warfare. Invoking national sovereignty and positioning the military as the guardian of stability are well-worn tools in the military’s playbook.

Possibility 3: India-Myanmar Border Interests

The India-Myanmar border, particularly where Myanmar’s Sagaing region meets India’s Manipur state, has seen a spike in disinformation in recent years, as part of a wider information war surrounding the Manipur conflict. While the KIA-India rare earths conspiracy piece does not primarily focus on this border, it does make specific claims that indicate a familiarity with political flashpoints in the region. In particular, the articles allege that the KIA agreed to support India in combating the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (Yung Aung) in Myanmar, and that the KIA gave its tacit support to India’s claims over contested territory in Myanmar’s Chin State and the Kabaw Valley. These topics rarely make headlines in mainstream Myanmar or India news, but two outlets that published the KIA-India rare earths conspiracy article, CNI Myanmar and the Ukhrul Times, focus on these border areas. The KIA-India conspiracy story’s mention of the NSCN-K(YA) and contested territory at the Manipur border, which have little to do with rare earths, suggests that the origin source of the story either had specific interests in these topics, or sought to exploit them toward another end.

Possibility 4: China, and/or Pro-China Networks

China, a longstanding rival of India, has one of the world’s most sophisticated and far-reaching propaganda apparatuses. China and pro-China networks have engaged in disinformation campaigns targeting India in the past; China also has a vested interest in maintaining dominance over rare earth supply chains originating in Myanmar. Choudhury of the National University of Singapore noted that China and pro-China networks would have both a motive and the means to orchestrate a disinformation campaign such as the KIA-India conspiracy story. “India’s outreach to the KIA could threaten China’s monopoly over the rare earth geographies in northern Myanmar,” he said, adding that China has a warm relationship with Pakistan, a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative. “One wonders, without being too conspiratorial, if some form of coordinated, transnational disinformation network is at play here — one that seeks to hinder India’s attempts to secure rare earths from KIA-controlled areas in northern Myanmar.”

Pro-China networks have engaged in influence operations regarding rare earths in the past. In 2022, research by the American cybersecurity firm Mandiant, a subsidiary of Google, found that a network of inauthentic online accounts favorable to the Chinese government had spread false information about foreign rare earth mining companies as part of a wider influence operation. Its methods, the study found, included “microtargeting” specific audiences as a way to manipulate public discourse.

Whether the India-KIA rare earths story has links to pro-China networks remains unconfirmed, but this investigation, alongside research from Fulde-Hardy of Graphika, did identify two instances in which some of the same digital infrastructure was used to share unsubstantiated claims on other topics within the past year.

In May of 2025, Tech Bullion published an article that alleged a conspiracy between Donald Trump Jr. and Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado involving rare earths. Like the India-KIA rare earths conspiracy story, Tech Bullion attributed the Trump Jr.-Machado conspiracy piece to Zeeshan Yousaf. Donald Trump Jr. rejected the article in a post on X; Tech Bullion took down the article after finding that it did not meet the site’s standards. In another similarity to the India-KIA rare earths conspiracy article, the Trump Jr.-Machado conspiracy article was published on Big News Network and attributed to BusinesNews Wire; the article has since been scrubbed from the Big News Network site. This investigation could not identify any evidence that the Trump Jr.-Machado conspiracy story was linked to pro-China networks.

Additional research conducted by Fulde-Hardy of Graphika, however, identified a separate case of shared publishing platforms with the India-KIA conspiracy story, which did involve Spamouflage networks. Last year, unsubstantiated claims targeting an aide to the Dalai Lama who has since passed away were published in articles on Big News Network and Daily Silicon Valley, as well as Think7Figures, a website run by Sujan Pariyar of the Silicon Valley Times. Fulde-Hardy also found that similar claims were amplified by X accounts very likely located in Pakistan, and that some of these X accounts linked to Fiverr accounts in their bios, indicating that they may publish paid content. One of these X accounts also shared links to a Pakistan-based PR company called Zubish Digital.

Further research by Fulde-Hardy found that links to domains for articles about the Dalai Lama’s former aide, along with cartoons and hashtags, were spread on Instagram, Tumblr, Reddit and the Japanese picture-sharing platform Pixiv. “The dissemination of the content on these specific platforms, the cartoons and accounts’ characteristics are typical of Spamouflage’s characteristics that we monitor,” she said.

An archived list of the posts on X and Facebook which shared versions of the article, or referenced its claims, in coordinated waves. Most of the accounts show a base in Pakistan.

Emily Fishbein is a freelance journalist and fellow with the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigations Network. Jauman Naw is a freelance journalist from Myanmar.